XRP Price Stalls Near $1.44 as Overbought Signals Point to $1.35 Support

XRP’s latest rally is starting to look tired.

The token was trading near $1.44 on August 26 after falling almost 5% during the session. Momentum indicators also started flashing warning signs. RSI moved above 74, while the MACD histogram flattened. XRP was still trading well above its major moving averages, though. That keeps the broader structure bullish for now.

The bigger question is whether XRP can cool off without breaking its wider uptrend.

Blockchain.News sees the $1.35 to $1.39 zone as the key area to watch. A controlled pullback into that range could reset momentum before another move higher.

XRP Is Starting to Look Overbought

XRP’s short-term momentum has weakened after a strong run. The Relative Strength Index reached about 74, which sits firmly in overbought territory. That does not automatically mean a major selloff is coming. Strong trends can stay overbought for longer than expected. The concern comes from several indicators weakening at the same time. XRP’s MACD histogram was flat, while price remained close to the upper Bollinger Band. That combination suggests buyers may need a pause before pushing higher again.

The Longer-Term XRP Trend Still Looks Bullish

The chart is not showing a full bearish reversal yet. XRP remains above its major 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. The 200-day moving average sits near $1.28. That level could become important if the current pullback deepens. XRP also tested an intraday low around $1.40 before recovering. For now, the market looks more like a bullish trend taking a break than a complete breakdown.

XRP Volume Is Not Confirming a Fresh Breakout

Trading volume is another reason for caution. Binance recorded roughly $262 million in XRP spot volume during the period covered by the analysis. That is active, but it is not the kind of surge usually associated with a powerful breakout. XRP also dropped 4.73% while open interest increased 7.49%. Open interest climbed above $484 million in notional value. Rising positioning during a price decline suggests traders are still willing to take risk around current levels.

Traders Are Still Heavily Positioned on the Long Side

Derivatives data shows that bullish positioning has not disappeared. Retail traders had a long-to-short ratio of about 2.42, with roughly 70.7% positioned long. Top traders were even more bullish. Their ratio stood near 2.66, with around 72.7% of positions on the long side. That does not guarantee another rally. It does show that many traders are treating the current weakness as a pullback rather than the start of a major decline.

Funding Rates Suggest Leverage Has Not Become Extreme

One positive sign is the relatively calm funding environment. The funding rate was around 0.0044%, according to the Blockchain.News analysis. That is fairly neutral. It suggests XRP has not built up the extreme leverage often seen before sharp liquidation events. The taker buy-to-sell ratio was also close to balanced at 1.056. Buyers had a slight edge, but not enough to signal strong breakout demand.

$1.35 to $1.39 Is the Main XRP Support Zone

Blockchain.News considers $1.39 the first important support level. Below that, $1.35 becomes the stronger technical floor. Its base-case scenario gives a 60% probability to a controlled retreat into this area. The analysis expects that move to unfold over roughly three to seven days. If buyers defend the zone, XRP could regain momentum afterward. This remains a technical scenario rather than a guaranteed price path.

A Recovery Could Put $1.56 and $1.65 Back in Play

If XRP holds support, resistance becomes the next challenge. Blockchain.News identifies $1.56 as a major upside level. A convincing breakout could then open the door toward $1.65. Its base case sees $1.56 as a possible 30-day target. The more aggressive bullish scenario puts $1.65 to $1.70 within reach. That outcome would likely require stronger demand across the wider crypto market.

An Immediate XRP Breakout Is Still Possible

The pullback is not the only scenario. Blockchain.News assigns a 25% probability to an immediate continuation higher. Under that setup, buyers would need to defend the current region and push through $1.50 resistance. A break above that level could bring the upper Bollinger Band near $1.58 into focus. XRP could then attempt a move toward $1.65 or higher. Bitcoin strength would probably help that scenario.

A Break Below $1.39 Would Change the Picture

The bearish scenario becomes more serious if XRP loses $1.39. Blockchain.News assigns a 15% probability to this outcome. A break could send XRP toward the 200-day moving average near $1.28. If that support also fails, the 50-day moving average near $1.12 could become relevant. A broader crypto selloff or macroeconomic shock could accelerate such a move.

XRP Is Bullish, but the Timing Is Awkward

XRP is sitting in an unusual position. Its larger trend remains constructive, but the short-term setup looks stretched. Buyers still dominate derivatives positioning. Funding also remains relatively calm. Yet momentum indicators are cooling, and volume has not confirmed another breakout.

That makes $1.35 to $1.39 the most important area to watch next. A successful defense could give XRP room to rebuild momentum. A clean break below it would put deeper support levels back on the table.

For now, the chart is not saying the XRP rally is finished. It is saying the rally may need a reset first.

Sources

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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