Hedera’s HBAR is sitting in an awkward part of the chart. Price action looks weak, momentum has been drained, and the longer-term trend still favors sellers. Yet beneath that bearish surface, positioning data is starting to tell a different story.
HBAR was trading around $0.072 on August 14, with several short-term moving averages crowded around the same price region. At the same time, retail traders were leaning short while larger Binance-tracked accounts were positioned slightly more toward the long side. That gap has made the latest HBAR price prediction less straightforward than the chart initially suggests.
HBAR Is Oversold, but the Trend Has Not Turned Bullish
HBAR’s technical picture remains damaged. The 200-day simple moving average was sitting near $0.09, leaving the token roughly 20% below that longer-term benchmark at the time of the analysis. Shorter moving averages had also compressed around the $0.07 region, which points to a market struggling to establish a convincing direction after months of weakness.
The more interesting readings were coming from momentum indicators. The Stochastic oscillator had dropped to roughly 6/4, while the Relative Strength Index was near 34.87. Neither number guarantees a reversal, of course. Oversold cryptocurrencies have a habit of becoming even more oversold. Still, conditions this stretched tend to get traders interested, particularly when positioning elsewhere in the market starts moving in the opposite direction.
Bollinger Band data added another wrinkle. The %B reading had moved below zero, meaning HBAR had traded underneath the lower Bollinger Band. That sort of move can precede a snapback toward the middle of the range. It can also happen just before another leg lower. Right now, both possibilities remain on the table.
Smart Money and Retail Traders Are Taking Opposite Sides
This is probably the most interesting part of the setup.
According to data cited in the August 14 analysis, retail positioning was approximately 53.8% net short. Binance-tracked top traders, meanwhile, were about 54.9% long. It isn’t an enormous gap, but the direction matters. Smaller traders were betting on continued weakness while larger accounts were leaning toward a rebound.
The taker buy-to-sell ratio was also reported at 1.17. A ratio above 1 indicates more aggressive market buying than selling, suggesting buyers were willing to cross the spread rather than simply leave passive bids below the market. Again, one indicator doesn’t suddenly make HBAR bullish. Combined with heavy retail short positioning, though, it creates the ingredients for a squeeze if price starts moving higher.
Funding was modestly negative at around -0.0072%, while open interest had increased approximately 1% even as HBAR moved lower. That can indicate fresh short positions entering during weakness. Those positions become potential forced buyers if the market abruptly reverses.
Low Trading Volume Makes the Next Move Harder to Trust
There is a problem with the bullish interpretation: spot demand wasn’t particularly convincing.
Blockchain.News reported roughly $3.7 million in 24-hour Binance spot volume in its analysis. Thin volume during a compressed market can produce sharp moves because there is less liquidity sitting between price levels. It also means a rebound without stronger participation could disappear just as quickly as it arrives.
For HBAR bulls, simply seeing green candles probably isn’t enough. A stronger signal would be rising volume alongside a break through nearby resistance.
This is where the $0.078 level becomes important.
$0.078 Could Decide Whether HBAR Pushes Toward $0.09
The bullish scenario starts with HBAR reclaiming approximately $0.078 and holding above it with stronger-than-normal volume. From there, the next resistance zone sits around $0.080 to $0.085, where several technical levels have clustered.
A sustained daily close above $0.085 would make the $0.09 region much more relevant. That’s where the 200-day moving average was positioned during the August 14 analysis, making it an obvious technical target and an equally obvious place for sellers to return.
A move toward $0.09 would represent a meaningful recovery from $0.072, but it still wouldn’t automatically mark the beginning of a new long-term HBAR uptrend. Reclaiming a major moving average is one thing. Staying above it is another.
The Bearish HBAR Scenario Still Points Toward $0.060
The downside case hasn’t disappeared just because traders are heavily short.
If selling volume begins expanding while HBAR remains trapped around the lower Bollinger Band, support between approximately $0.065 and $0.060 becomes the zone to watch. A break below $0.060 would materially weaken the structure and could expose the $0.050 area next.
That risk matters because HBAR is still trading below its long-term trend indicator. Traders trying to catch an exact bottom are effectively betting that oversold conditions will reverse before the broader bearish structure produces another breakdown.
Sometimes that works. Sometimes the market simply keeps falling.
Hedera’s Fundamentals Tell a Different Story From HBAR’s Chart
HBAR’s short-term price performance doesn’t necessarily reflect what is happening across the Hedera ecosystem.
Hedera describes its network as infrastructure for decentralized applications spanning areas such as finance, artificial intelligence and sustainability. The ecosystem has also continued emphasizing institutional adoption and tokenization, while its governance model relies on a council made up of organizations from different industries and geographic regions.
Tokenization has been part of Hedera’s strategy for years. Hedera Token Service was built to allow native token issuance without requiring every project to create its own token architecture through smart contracts, and organizations within the ecosystem have explored applications ranging from investment funds to real-world assets.
None of that guarantees a higher HBAR price next week.
That’s the uncomfortable split investors have to deal with. A network can continue developing while its native token remains stuck in a bearish market. Fundamentals tend to matter over longer periods. Traders looking at the next seven or thirty days are watching positioning, liquidity and price levels instead.
HBAR Price Prediction: $0.09 or $0.060 Comes Down to Confirmation
For now, HBAR looks more like a potential reversal setup than an actual reversal.
Retail traders are leaning bearish. Larger traders are leaning slightly bullish. Momentum indicators are deeply stretched, aggressive buying has appeared in derivatives data, and negative funding gives a short squeeze some room to develop. Those are useful clues.
Price still has to cooperate.
A convincing move through $0.078 would strengthen the case for $0.080-$0.085, followed by a possible challenge of $0.09. Failure to recover, especially if selling volume increases, keeps $0.065 and $0.060 firmly in play.
HBAR doesn’t need another prediction right now as much as it needs confirmation. Whichever side gets it first could control the next major move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
